· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Merelbeke vs Harelbeke Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Merelbeke and 1.00 for Harelbeke, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Merelbeke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merelbeke win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merelbeke home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harelbeke away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merelbeke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Merelbeke and 1.00 for Harelbeke, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Merelbeke
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tienen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Harelbeke · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 0-1 (L)
Harelbeke
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merelbeke win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.