Mérida AD vs Alcorcon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mérida AD and 1.41 for Alcorcon, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Mérida AD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mérida AD home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcorcon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mérida AD win39%

Draw25%

Alcorcon win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.6%
2–18.6%
1–08.2%
1–28.2%
0–17.8%

Recent form

Mérida AD

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)

Alcorcon

2026-10-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 2-1 Alcorcon (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 2-1 Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2024-11-03T16:30:00.000Z · Mérida AD 2-2 Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2023-05-14T16:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 0-0 Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2023-01-08T11:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 0-2 Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.