Estadio Romano Jose Fouto · Referee A. Rodriguez · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Mérida AD vs Cacereño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mérida AD and 0.90 for Cacereño, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Mérida AD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mérida AD home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cacereño away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 58.5% vs market 47.8%, edge +10.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 58.5% | 1.71 | +10.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 55.9% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.4% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 72.3% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 27.6% | 27.6% | 3.62 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 41.5% | 2.41 | -10.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mérida AD
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa · 0-1 (L)
Cacereño
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Mérida AD · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · Mérida AD 2-0 Cacereño (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 1-0 Cacereño (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · Mérida AD 1-2 Cacereño (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · Mérida AD 0-0 Cacereño (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-24T16:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 2-1 Cacereño (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2021-12-05T16:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 0-1 Cacereño (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2021-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · Mérida AD 3-0 Cacereño (Friendlies Clubs)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.