Estadio Romano Jose Fouto · Referee M. Garrote · Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Mérida AD vs Mirandes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mérida AD and 1.24 for Mirandes, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Mérida AD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mérida AD home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirandes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mérida AD to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Mérida AD and 1.24 for Mirandes, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Mérida AD
- 2026-10-25T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-5 (L)
Mirandes
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.