The Hybrid Fitness Stadium · Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Merstham vs Sheppey United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Merstham and 1.25 for Sheppey United, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Merstham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merstham win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merstham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheppey United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Merstham
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peacehaven & Telscombe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Grinstead Town · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Erith Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sittingbourne · 1-1 (D)
Sheppey United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Snodland · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deal Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redhill · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beaconsfield Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Merstham 1-2 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Merstham 1-1 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Merstham 3-4 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
- 2024-10-15T18:45:00.000Z · Merstham 1-1 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
- 2024-02-24T15:00:00.000Z · Merstham 1-0 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
- 2023-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · Merstham 3-2 Sheppey United (Non League Div One - Isthmian South East)
Non League Div One - Isthmian South East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three Bridges | 42 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 80 | 96 |
| 2 | AFC Croydon Athletic | 42 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 85 |
| 3 | Jersey Bulls | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 84 |
| 4 | AFC Whyteleafe | 42 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 83 |
| 5 | Sittingbourne | 42 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 79 |
| 6 | Margate | 42 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 75 |
| 7 | Faversham Town | 42 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 28 | 74 |
| 8 | Deal Town | 42 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 69 |
| 9 | Ashford United | 42 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 67 |
| 10 | Merstham | 42 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 60 |
| 11 | Eastbourne Town | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | -14 | 56 |
| 12 | Sevenoaks Town | 42 | 16 | 7 | 19 | -8 | 55 |
| 13 | Crowborough Athletic | 42 | 16 | 7 | 19 | -21 | 55 |
| 14 | Herne Bay | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 55 |
| 15 | Broadbridge Heath | 42 | 15 | 5 | 22 | -10 | 50 |
| 16 | Erith Town | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | -16 | 47 |
| 17 | Hastings United | 42 | 13 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 46 |
| 18 | Sheppey United | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | -32 | 44 |
| 19 | Hassocks | 42 | 11 | 8 | 23 | -26 | 41 |
| 20 | Beckenham Town | 42 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -41 | 35 |
| 21 | VCD Athletic | 42 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -47 | 32 |
| 22 | East Grinstead Town | 42 | 1 | 3 | 38 | -131 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merstham win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.