· Analysis updated 08:08 UTC
Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Merthyr Town and 1.17 for Hebburn Town, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Merthyr Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Merthyr Town win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merthyr Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hebburn Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merthyr Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Merthyr Town and 1.17 for Hebburn Town, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Merthyr Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-0 (W)
Hebburn Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Darlington 1883 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hednesford Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Radcliffe · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merthyr Town win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.