Penydarren Park · Analysis updated 19:05 UTC
Merthyr Town vs Marine Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Merthyr Town and 1.00 for Marine, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Merthyr Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merthyr Town win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merthyr Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marine away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merthyr Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Merthyr Town and 1.00 for Marine, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 51.6% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.8% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.1% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.5% | 47.5% | 2.11 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Merthyr Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-0 (W)
Marine
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrington Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Merthyr Town 1-2 Marine (National League - North)
- 2026-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Merthyr Town 3-1 Marine (National League - North)
- 2025-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Merthyr Town 1-3 Marine (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merthyr Town win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.