Merthyr Town vs Morecambe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Merthyr Town and 1.20 for Morecambe, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Morecambe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Merthyr Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Morecambe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morecambe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Merthyr Town and 1.20 for Morecambe, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Merthyr Town win36%

Draw28%

Morecambe win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.2%
1–010.9%
0–09.3%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Merthyr Town

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-0 (W)

Morecambe

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brackley Town · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southport · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	8	24
2	Hereford	11	7	2	2	16	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	14	23
4	King's Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	6	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	5	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	1	20
7	Hednesford Town	12	5	3	4	2	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	-5	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	5	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	0	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	-1	16
13	Worksop Town	12	5	1	6	-5	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	2	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	1	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	1	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	-1	15
18	Brackley Town	12	4	3	5	-8	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	4	14
20	Radcliffe	12	4	0	8	-6	12
21	AFC Telford United	12	3	3	6	-7	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	-10	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	-10	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	-11	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.