Mes Kerman vs Naft Gachsaran Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Mes Kerman and 0.76 for Naft Gachsaran, a combined total of 1.40. That distribution gives Naft Gachsaran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.64 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mes Kerman home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naft Gachsaran away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 27% / 38% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Mes Kerman and 0.76 for Naft Gachsaran, a combined 1.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mes Kerman win27%

Draw38%

Naft Gachsaran win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

62%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals41%

Over 2.5 goals17%

Over 3.5 goals5%

Both teams to score25%

Correct score

0–024.6%
0–118.8%
1–015.8%
1–112.0%
0–27.1%

Recent form

Mes Kerman

2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Rafsanjan · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Niroye Zamini · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Saipa · 0-1 (L)

Naft Gachsaran

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novin Ahvaz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	4	2	0	4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Saipa	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	1	4	1	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	1	3	2	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Havadar	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.