Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.63 for Ario Eslamshahr, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Mes Rafsanjan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mes Rafsanjan win

47.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mes Rafsanjan home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ario Eslamshahr away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mes Rafsanjan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 32% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.63 for Ario Eslamshahr, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mes Rafsanjan win47%

Draw32%

Ario Eslamshahr win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.4%
0–017.4%
1–112.3%
0–111.0%
2–010.9%

Recent form

Mes Rafsanjan

2026-07-22T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 0-3 (L)
2026-02-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-02-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Paykan · 2-0 (W)
2026-02-07T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 0-1 (L)
2026-02-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 0-2 (L)

Ario Eslamshahr

2026-07-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Damash Gilanian · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	4	2	0	4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Saipa	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	1	4	1	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	1	3	2	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Havadar	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mes Rafsanjan win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.