Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium · Analysis updated 03:57 UTC
Mes Rafsanjan vs Havadar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.26 for Havadar, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Mes Rafsanjan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mes Rafsanjan win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mes Rafsanjan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mes Rafsanjan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 25% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.26 for Havadar, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 18%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–026.0%
- 2–019.1%
- 0–017.8%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
Mes Rafsanjan
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Niroye Zamini · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Kerman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-0 (D)
Havadar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mes Rafsanjan win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.