Stadio Francesco Baracca · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Mestre vs Treviso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mestre and 1.20 for Treviso, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Treviso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mestre home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Treviso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Treviso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 29% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Mestre and 1.20 for Treviso, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Mestre
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Obermais · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altavilla · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bassano Virtus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luparense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvi Noale · 2-0 (W)
Treviso
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Sandona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Campodarsego | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Clodiense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bassano Virtus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | LME | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mestre | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Legnago Salus | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Conegliano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Obermais | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Calvi Noale | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Este | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Altavilla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Triestina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Virtus Bolzano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Schio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.