Metallurg Stadium · Analysis updated 19:14 UTC
Metalourg vs Jayxun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Metalourg and 0.83 for Jayxun, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Metalourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metalourg win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Metalourg and 0.83 for Jayxun, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 66% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Metalourg
Jayxun
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 39 |
| 8 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Jayxun | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 24 | 5 | 1 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -36 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | -48 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metalourg win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.