Stadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Metalul Buzău vs CS Afumati Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metalul Buzău and 1.03 for CS Afumati, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Metalul Buzău the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metalul Buzău win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metalul Buzău home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
CS Afumati away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalul Buzău to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Metalul Buzău and 1.03 for CS Afumati, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Metalul Buzău
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 0-2 (L)
CS Afumati
- 2026-10-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Bacau | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Concordia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Metalul Buzău | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | CS Afumati | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Metaloglobus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | ASA Targu Mures | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Bihor Oradea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 19 | Unirea Slobozia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 22 | CS Dinamo București | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metalul Buzău win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.