Stadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass · Analysis updated 22:38 UTC
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Metalul Buzău and 0.95 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Metalul Buzău the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Metalul Buzău win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metalul Buzău home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalul Buzău to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Metalul Buzău and 0.95 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Metalul Buzău
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ştefăneşti · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-22T09:00:00.000Z · Metalul Buzău 1-1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti (Liga II)
- 2024-08-10T08:00:00.000Z · Metalul Buzău 0-1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti (Liga II)
- 2021-04-30T12:00:00.000Z · Metalul Buzău 0-5 CSA Steaua Bucureşti (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2020-11-07T12:00:00.000Z · Metalul Buzău 2-2 CSA Steaua Bucureşti (Liga III - Serie 4)
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Slatina | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Chindia Targoviste | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Popești-Leordeni | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Cetatea Suceava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Metalul Buzău | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | CSM Reşiţa | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Concordia | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Bihor Oradea | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | CS Afumati | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | ASA Targu Mures | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Unirea Slobozia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 21 | Ştefăneşti | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metalul Buzău win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.