Metalul Buzău vs FC Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Metalul Buzău and 1.10 for FC Bacau, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives FC Bacau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Metalul Buzău home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Bacau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Bacau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Metalul Buzău and 1.10 for FC Bacau, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Metalul Buzău win34%

Draw30%

FC Bacau win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.7%
1–012.2%
0–011.5%
1–27.4%

Recent form

Metalul Buzău

2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)

FC Bacau

2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	7	3	0	12	24
3	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	7	0	3	12	21
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	10	5	3	2	13	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	10	5	2	3	2	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	0	6	4	-7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	1	3	6	-13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.