Metalul Buzău vs Ştefăneşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Metalul Buzău and 0.95 for Ştefăneşti, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Metalul Buzău the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Metalul Buzău win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Metalul Buzău home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ştefăneşti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalul Buzău to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Metalul Buzău and 0.95 for Ştefăneşti, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Metalul Buzău win61%

Draw22%

Ştefăneşti win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.7%
2–010.5%
1–110.2%
2–19.9%
3–06.8%

Recent form

Metalul Buzău

2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)

Ştefăneşti

2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · Metalul Buzău 4-2 Ştefăneşti (Friendlies Clubs)

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	7	3	0	12	24
3	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	7	0	3	12	21
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	10	5	3	2	13	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	10	5	2	3	2	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	0	6	4	-7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	1	3	6	-13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Metalul Buzău win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.