Slavutych-Arena · Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Bukovyna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 2.38 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Bukovyna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bukovyna win
77.0% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metalurh Zaporizhya home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bukovyna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.4%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–311.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–17.3%
Recent form
Metalurh Zaporizhya
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Lozova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 2-2 (D)
Bukovyna
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-02T10:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 0-4 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2025-11-08T12:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 0-3 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2024-05-25T10:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 0-2 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2024-04-20T09:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 0-5 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2012-05-15T14:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 2-3 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2011-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Metalurh Zaporizhya 3-2 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bukovyna win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.