Dimotiko Stadio Tríkalon · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Meteora vs Karitsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Meteora and 1.20 for Karitsa, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Karitsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karitsa win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karitsa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karitsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 15% / 31% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Meteora and 1.20 for Karitsa, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.9%
- 0–018.3%
- 0–213.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–09.1%
Recent form
Meteora
Karitsa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarakinos · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aetos Makrychoriou · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 1-3 (L)
- 2021-05-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fikis · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karitsa win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.