· Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Metropolitan vs North Leeward Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Metropolitan and 0.94 for North Leeward, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Metropolitan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metropolitan win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metropolitan home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metropolitan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Metropolitan and 0.94 for North Leeward, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
Metropolitan
- 2026-07-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Helenites · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs North Leeward · 4-0 (W)
- 2024-07-30T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pantoja · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-07-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs SWA Sharks · 2-0 (W)
North Leeward
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Caribbean Club Shield table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Metropolitan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Robin Hood | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Slingerz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Inter Willemstad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Helenites | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Elite | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | St. John's | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | La Clery FL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | North Leeward | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Britannia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | All Saints United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Baltimore | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Weymouth Wales | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Prison Service | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Roaring Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Dublanc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Eagles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | VG United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | St. Pauls United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | SWA Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metropolitan win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.