· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Metropolitano vs Caravaggio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Metropolitano and 1.68 for Caravaggio, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Caravaggio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caravaggio win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metropolitano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caravaggio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caravaggio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Metropolitano and 1.68 for Caravaggio, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Metropolitano
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
Caravaggio
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus SC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubarao · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraguá · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caravaggio win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.