· Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Metropolitano vs Nação Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Metropolitano and 1.48 for Nação, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Metropolitano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metropolitano win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metropolitano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nação away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Metropolitano
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
Nação
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 2-2 Nação (Copa Santa Catarina)
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 0-0 Nação (Catarinense - 2)
- 2026-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 5-2 Nação (Catarinense - 2)
- 2025-06-15T18:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 4-2 Nação (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 2-3 Nação (Catarinense - 2)
- 2022-06-04T00:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 0-0 Nação (Catarinense - 2)
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Figueirense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Hercílio Luz | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Marcílio Dias | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Joinville | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Metropolitano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Barra | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Santa Catarina | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Nação | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metropolitano win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.