Metropolitanos FC vs Caracas FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.37 for Caracas FC, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Metropolitanos FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Metropolitanos FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caracas FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metropolitanos FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.37 for Caracas FC, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Metropolitanos FC win39%

Draw25%

Caracas FC win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–08.7%
2–18.5%
0–18.3%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Metropolitanos FC

2026-08-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-1 (W)

Caracas FC

2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	26	17	6	3	26	57
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	26	15	6	5	18	51
3	Deportivo La Guaira	26	12	8	6	13	44
4	Carabobo FC	26	10	11	5	14	41
5	Puerto Cabello	26	10	10	6	9	40
6	Portuguesa FC	26	9	12	5	10	39
7	UCV	26	11	6	9	2	39
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	26	10	7	9	2	37
9	Caracas FC	26	7	11	8	-3	32
10	Monagas SC	26	8	5	13	-8	29
11	Zamora FC	26	6	7	13	-15	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	26	7	4	15	-21	25
13	Trujillanos FC	26	4	6	16	-23	18
14	Anzoátegui FC	26	4	5	17	-24	17
1	Deportivo La Guaira	13	7	6	0	9	27
2	Metropolitanos FC	13	7	4	2	7	25
3	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	7	3	3	5	24
4	UCV	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Portuguesa FC	13	5	5	3	8	20
6	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	6	2	5	3	20
7	Carabobo FC	13	4	7	2	9	19
8	Puerto Cabello	13	4	5	4	2	17
9	Zamora FC	13	4	5	4	0	17
10	Caracas FC	13	3	6	4	-2	15
11	Rayo Zuliano	13	4	2	7	-10	14
12	Monagas SC	13	3	2	8	-8	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	2	3	8	-10	9
14	Trujillanos FC	13	0	4	9	-17	4
1	Puerto Cabello	6	3	1	2	1	10
1	Carabobo FC	6	3	2	1	5	11
2	Portuguesa FC	6	2	2	2	-1	8
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	6	3	2	1	3	11
3	Deportivo La Guaira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Metropolitanos FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
4	UCV	6	1	3	2	0	6
4	Estudiantes de Merida FC	6	1	0	5	-6	3
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	10	2	1	19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	8	3	2	13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	6	5	2	7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	6	4	3	5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	4	7	2	2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	5	3	5	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	5	2	6	4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	4	5	4	-1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	UCV	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	4	2	7	-6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	3	2	8	-11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	2	2	9	-14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	2	2	9	-15	8
1	Carabobo FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Tachira FC	1	1	0	0	1	3
2	Portuguesa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Puerto Cabello	1	1	0	0	1	3
3	Deportivo La Guaira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Caracas FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
4	Metropolitanos FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Monagas SC	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.