Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee A. Herrera · Analysis updated 21:11 UTC
Metropolitanos FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.53 for Deportivo Tachira FC, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Metropolitanos FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metropolitanos FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Tachira FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metropolitanos FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Metropolitanos FC and 1.53 for Deportivo Tachira FC, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Metropolitanos FC
- 2026-08-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-1 (W)
Deportivo Tachira FC
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.