TK Shutter Reserve · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
MetroStars vs Croydon Kings Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for MetroStars and 1.43 for Croydon Kings, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives MetroStars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MetroStars win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MetroStars home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Croydon Kings away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
MetroStars
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs West Torrens Birkalla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 1-0 (W)
Croydon Kings
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturt Lions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Beograd · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Campbelltown City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 2-0 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 2-0 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-05-23T05:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 3-2 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 1-2 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 4-0 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-05-17T05:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 1-0 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-06-29T09:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 3-2 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-04-05T09:15:00.000Z · MetroStars 4-1 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-06-03T07:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 2-2 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 6-1 Croydon Kings (South Australia NPL)
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MetroStars win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.