TK Shutter Reserve · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
MetroStars vs West Adelaide Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for MetroStars and 1.15 for West Adelaide, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives MetroStars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MetroStars win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MetroStars home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
West Adelaide away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
MetroStars
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs West Torrens Birkalla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 1-0 (W)
West Adelaide
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Playford City Patriots · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Para Hills Knights · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T09:45:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturt Lions · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T09:45:00.000Z · MetroStars 1-3 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 3-3 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-06-10T05:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 3-2 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-03-25T09:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 2-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2020-01-24T09:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 7-0 West Adelaide (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-08-17T09:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 4-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2019-08-17T09:30:00.000Z · MetroStars 4-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2019-05-11T05:00:00.000Z · MetroStars 4-1 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MetroStars win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.