· Analysis updated 09:23 UTC
Metta / LU vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.40 expected goals for Metta / LU and 0.52 for JFK Ventspils, a combined total of 4.92. That distribution gives Metta / LU the largest share of the 1X2 market at 95%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 95% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metta / LU win
94.9% probability
Expected goals
4.40 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metta / LU home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
JFK Ventspils away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metta / LU to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 95%, against 95% / 4% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.40 goals for Metta / LU and 0.52 for JFK Ventspils, a combined 4.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
5%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–011.4%
- 3–010.3%
- 5–010.0%
- 6–07.3%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Metta / LU
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova 2 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs JFK Ventspils · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 2-2 (D)
JFK Ventspils
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leevon / PPK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skanste · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metta / LU · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS II · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 78 | 60 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 53 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 53 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 50 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 33 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Skanste | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | -2 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -6 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -27 | 20 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -34 | 19 |
| 12 | Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -24 | 16 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | -53 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metta / LU win, at 94.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 95% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.