· Analysis updated 18:38 UTC
Metz vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Metz and 1.55 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Metz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metz win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metz home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Metz and 1.55 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Metz
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 0-1 (L)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metz win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.