Stade Saint Symphorien · Referee Jeremy Stinat, France · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Metz vs Rodez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Metz and 1.70 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Rodez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rodez away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rodez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Metz and 1.70 for Rodez, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Metz
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Laval · 1-1 (D)
Rodez
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Nancy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Annecy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Sochaux | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Dijon | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Nantes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.