· Analysis updated 18:27 UTC
Mexico U20 W vs China PR U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mexico U20 W and 1.53 for China PR U20 W, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives China PR U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China PR U20 W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China PR U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Mexico U20 W and 1.53 for China PR U20 W, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Mexico U20 W
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U20 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 0-2 (L)
China PR U20 W
- 2026-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand U20 W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangladesh U20 W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam U20 W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.