Estadio Cuauhtemoc · Referee S. Brown · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Mexico vs Ghana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Mexico and 0.63 for Ghana, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Mexico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mexico win
78.6% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mexico home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ghana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mexico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Mexico and 0.63 for Ghana, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.7%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 4–07.3%
Recent form
Mexico
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs England · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 2-0 (W)
Ghana
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gambia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mexico win, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.