Estadio Nemesio Diez · Referee Tori Penso, USA · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Mexico vs Serbia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mexico and 0.99 for Serbia, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Mexico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mexico win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mexico home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Serbia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mexico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Mexico and 0.99 for Serbia, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
Mexico
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs England · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 2-0 (W)
Serbia
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Netherlands · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Greece · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mexico win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.