· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Mezzolara vs Ternana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mezzolara and 1.26 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Ternana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.7% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ternana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ternana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Mezzolara and 1.26 for Ternana, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Mezzolara
Ternana
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucchese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scandicci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tau Altopascio · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mezzolara · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Seravezza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Lucchese | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Flaminia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.