· Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Mfalme vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.19 expected goals for Mfalme and 1.47 for Murang'a SEAL, a combined total of 4.66. That distribution gives Mfalme the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mfalme win
71.1% probability
Expected goals
3.19 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murang'a SEAL away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mfalme to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 14% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.19 goals for Mfalme and 1.47 for Murang'a SEAL, a combined 4.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 73%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 2–17.1%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.2%
Recent form
Mfalme
Murang'a SEAL
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mara Sugar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Shield Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bandari | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tusker | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Mfalme | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Nairobi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Ulinzi Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | BB Bread | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Homeboyz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Kariobangi Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | KUTA Collection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chebaiywa Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mfalme win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.