Mestsky stadion Bytca · Analysis updated 20:50 UTC
MFK Bytča vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for MFK Bytča and 2.01 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MFK Bytča home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for MFK Bytča and 2.01 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
MFK Bytča
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
- 2026-10-24T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Galanta | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 7 | Tatran Prešov | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Malženice | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Humenné | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -22 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.