MFK Bytča vs Humenné Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for MFK Bytča and 1.29 for Humenné, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives MFK Bytča the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MFK Bytča home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Humenné away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MFK Bytča to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for MFK Bytča and 1.29 for Humenné, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MFK Bytča win39%

Draw26%

Humenné win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–09.5%
0–18.8%
2–18.5%
1–27.9%

Recent form

MFK Bytča

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)

Humenné

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MFK Bytča · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Petržalka	13	9	3	1	14	30
2	Šamorín	13	9	2	2	10	29
3	Pohronie	13	7	2	4	5	23
4	Považská Bystrica	13	7	2	4	3	23
5	Galanta	13	7	1	5	0	22
6	Žilina II	13	6	3	4	3	21
7	Inter Bratislava	13	5	5	3	12	20
8	Liptovský Mikuláš	13	5	4	4	4	19
9	Tatran Prešov	13	5	4	4	-1	19
10	Slovan Bratislava II	13	4	4	5	2	16
11	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Zlaté Moravce	13	3	4	6	-2	13
13	Malženice	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	Humenné	13	3	2	8	-11	11
15	MFK Bytča	13	3	0	10	-19	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	13	1	3	9	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.