MFK Bytča vs Tatran Prešov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for MFK Bytča and 2.16 for Tatran Prešov, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Tatran Prešov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tatran Prešov win

59.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 2.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MFK Bytča home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tatran Prešov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tatran Prešov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for MFK Bytča and 2.16 for Tatran Prešov, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MFK Bytča win20%

Draw20%

Tatran Prešov win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–29.7%
1–19.0%
0–28.1%
0–17.5%
1–37.0%

Recent form

MFK Bytča

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)

Tatran Prešov

2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Čadca · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Šamorín	14	10	2	2	11	32
2	Petržalka	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Považská Bystrica	14	8	2	4	4	26
4	Žilina II	14	7	3	4	4	24
5	Pohronie	14	7	2	5	4	23
6	Galanta	14	7	2	5	0	23
7	Tatran Prešov	14	6	4	4	2	22
8	Inter Bratislava	14	5	6	3	12	21
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	14	5	4	5	3	19
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Slovan Bratislava II	14	4	5	5	2	17
12	Malženice	14	4	3	7	-2	15
13	Zlaté Moravce	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	Humenné	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	MFK Bytča	14	3	0	11	-22	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	14	1	3	10	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tatran Prešov win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.