· Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Middelfart vs Nykobing FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Middelfart and 2.01 for Nykobing FC, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Nykobing FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Middelfart home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Nykobing FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nykobing FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Middelfart and 2.01 for Nykobing FC, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Middelfart
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FA 2000 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VSK Århus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skive · 0-0 (D)
Nykobing FC
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Skive · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremad Amager · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Naestved | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | B 93 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | HIK | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Thisted FC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | FA 2000 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -16 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.