Heritage Park · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Middlesbrough U21 vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Middlesbrough U21 and 2.62 for Tottenham Hotspur U21, a combined total of 4.61. That distribution gives Tottenham Hotspur U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tottenham Hotspur U21 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 2.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Middlesbrough U21 home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tottenham Hotspur U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 30% / 19% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Middlesbrough U21 and 2.62 for Tottenham Hotspur U21, a combined 4.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 80%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Middlesbrough U21
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Genk U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 1-3 (L)
Tottenham Hotspur U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tottenham Hotspur U21 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.