Riverside Stadium · Analysis updated 14:09 UTC
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.20 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Middlesbrough win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Middlesbrough home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Charlton away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.20 for Charlton, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Middlesbrough
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
Charlton
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Middlesbrough win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.