Middlesbrough vs Lincoln Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.08 for Lincoln, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Middlesbrough win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Middlesbrough home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lincoln away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.08 for Lincoln, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Middlesbrough win68%

Draw17%

Lincoln win15%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.4%
2–08.7%
3–17.8%
1–17.5%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Middlesbrough

2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)

Lincoln

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	10	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	3	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	17	22
4	Wolves	12	6	3	3	4	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	3	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	8	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	8	20
9	Stoke City	12	6	2	4	2	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	4	4	4	1	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	-1	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Lincoln	12	4	3	5	-7	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	2	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	-3	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	-7	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	-2	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	-10	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	-11	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Middlesbrough win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.