Middlesbrough vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.75 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Middlesbrough home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swansea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Middlesbrough win39%

Draw22%

Swansea win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–18.1%
1–28.0%
2–27.1%
1–05.2%

Recent form

Middlesbrough

2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)

Swansea

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 2-2 Swansea (Championship)
2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea (Championship)
2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 0-1 Swansea (Championship)
2024-08-10T11:30:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea (Championship)
2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea (Championship)
2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 3-1 Swansea (Championship)
2022-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
2022-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-1 Swansea (Championship)
2021-12-04T15:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	10	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	3	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	17	22
4	Wolves	12	6	3	3	4	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	3	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	8	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	8	20
9	Stoke City	12	6	2	4	2	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	4	4	4	1	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	-1	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Lincoln	12	4	3	5	-7	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	2	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	-3	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	-7	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	-2	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	-10	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	-11	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.