Middlesbrough vs Wrexham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.40 for Wrexham, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Middlesbrough win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Middlesbrough home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wrexham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.40 for Wrexham, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Middlesbrough win53%

Draw21%

Wrexham win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–19.1%
2–06.7%
2–26.5%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Middlesbrough

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)

Wrexham

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham (League Cup)
2026-05-02T11:30:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 2-2 Wrexham (Championship)
2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Middlesbrough 1-1 Wrexham (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
5	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Middlesbrough win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.