· Analysis updated 00:51 UTC
Miedź Legnica II vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Miedź Legnica II and 1.40 for Goczałkowice Zdrój, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Goczałkowice Zdrój the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Miedź Legnica II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Goczałkowice Zdrój away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Miedź Legnica II
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 4-2 (W)
Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 5-0 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2026-04-11T10:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 2-1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 1-3 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 5-1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 1-1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-03-04T12:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 0-2 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-08-06T11:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 2-2 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 2-1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 0-1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-05-22T11:00:00.000Z · Miedź Legnica II 3-0 Goczałkowice Zdrój (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.