· Referee M. Piszczelok · Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 0.90 for Chrobry Głogów, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Miedz Legnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Miedz Legnica win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Miedz Legnica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chrobry Głogów away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Miedz Legnica
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 1-1 (D)
Chrobry Głogów
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T18:30:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 0-1 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2026-01-17T10:00:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 2-3 Chrobry Głogów (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 2-2 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2025-04-27T15:00:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-1 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-0 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2024-07-06T08:30:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-0 Chrobry Głogów (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 0-0 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2024-01-20T09:00:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-2 Chrobry Głogów (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-1 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
- 2022-04-30T10:40:00.000Z · Miedz Legnica 1-0 Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Miedz Legnica win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.