Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.00 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Miedz Legnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Miedz Legnica win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Miedz Legnica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Mielec away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Miedz Legnica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.00 for Stal Mielec, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Miedz Legnica win68%

Draw18%

Stal Mielec win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.6%
2–19.6%
1–08.0%
1–18.0%
3–07.7%

Recent form

Miedz Legnica

2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 1-1 (D)

Stal Mielec

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	3	0	7	-3	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Miedz Legnica win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.