· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Migjorn vs Arenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Migjorn and 1.48 for Arenal, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Migjorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Migjorn home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Migjorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Migjorn and 1.48 for Arenal, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Migjorn
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-3 (L)
Arenal
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llosetense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mercadal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.