· Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Migjorn vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Migjorn and 2.16 for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Ibiza Islas Pitiusas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win
69.2% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Migjorn home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 12% / 19% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Migjorn and 2.16 for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.9%
- 1–18.9%
Recent form
Migjorn
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-3 (L)
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Constància | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Platges Calvià | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Mercadal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Andratx | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.