Camp Municipal Los Nogales · Referee Santiago Ibáñez · Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Migjorn vs Llosetense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Migjorn and 1.51 for Llosetense, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Llosetense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Migjorn home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llosetense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llosetense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Migjorn and 1.51 for Llosetense, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Migjorn
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-5 (L)
Llosetense
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenal · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Ibiza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Formentera · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.