· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
Migjorn vs Sineu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Migjorn and 1.35 for Sineu, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Migjorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Migjorn home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sineu away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Migjorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Migjorn and 1.35 for Sineu, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Migjorn
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-5 (L)
Sineu
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Manacor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.